Class AAA
By Coach Coren (Strath Haven)shjumpdr1@gmail.com
AAA GIRLS: 1st 5 teams plus the next 25 non-1st place team finishers qualify for STATES
TEAMS
HISTORY (of the teams who have a shot in 2015): NORTH PENN(8th 2014) has qualified 10 of the last 16 years. PENNSBURY was 1st in 2014, 2nd in 2013 and 2012, 1st in 2011 and 2010, 2nd in 2009, and 6th in 2008 (that's 7 years in a row to STATES)! UNIONVILLE was 2nd in 2014, 1st in 2013 and 2012 and 2nd in 2011 and made STATES all 5 years from 2003 to 2007. STRATH HAVEN has made STATES 6 of the last 11 years. CENTRAL BUCKS WEST qualified for STATES in 2012 and 2005 and just missed last year finishing 6th. DOWNINGTOWN EAST has qualified 4 of the last 8 years. CENTRAL BUCKS EAST made it in 2014, 2013 and 2010. GREAT VALLEY has made it the last 2 years in a row. DOWNINGTOWN WEST has not made it yet in the 2000's, but have often been fairly close (7th 2014 8th 2013). PERKIOMEN VALLEY made it to STATES in 2007. CONESTOGA made it last year finishing 4th. Neither OWEN J ROBERTS or COATESVILLE have made STATES, but both have a shot!
If you are counting, that equals 13 teams with Hershey hopes to make it to STATES (Only 5 will persevere!!). As always it is VERY!!! TOUGH!! making it to STATES from District 1.
2015 PREDICTIONS!!??
Here are my 2 absolute locks to go to STATES---UNIONVILLE and PENNSBURY. As for the District Team Champion, it will not be close!! PENNSBURY will crush the field! They have a solid 7!! UNIONVILLE's Top 4 are really good, and their 5th and 6th have been steadily improving. As for the next 3, 11 teams will be trying to get out of the pack and get a ticket for Hershey Park. The race will be a roller coaster ride and the order of team finishes will likely be decided by the final sprint! Narrowing down from 11 to 3 teams is not an easy statistical job. Using past results(from previous years and 2015), analyzing who is peaking at the right time, and getting input from some other District 1 coaches, I will attempt to duplicate last year's 5 for 5 STATE QUALIFIERS' prediction. Of the 11 quality teams who might make it, I will try to be fair and narrow the list. It appears that 3 of CBW, GV, NP, OJR, PERKV, and SH will qualify for STATES. NP, OJR, and SH have improved recently. NP has come a long way and developed 2 more runners to go along with their top 3 who have run great all season. OJR has significantly closed the gap on league rival, PERKV, losing only by 1 point last week. SH looked good against OH at Delcos and defeated CON twice in a week. PERKV has been strong all year and ran awesome at Paul Short (Districts' course). GV has been steady all year and ran great last year at Districts. CBW is always tough and their coach has them always ready to compete! OK--Here goes!!!!!!! The 3 other STATE qualifiers from District 1 will be.................................. NORTH PENN, PERKIOMEN VALLEY, and OWEN J ROBERTS(1st time in 21st century).
Here is the list in alphabetical order with relevant team finishes and information.
CENTRAL BUCKS EAST--2nd Sharp-3rd Quad X-5th Briarwood Champs-4th Foundation-3rd SOL Continental
CENTRAL BUCKS WEST--3rd PTC7 Gold-3rd Briarwood Champs-14th Paul Short Brown-1st Gettysburg-2nd SOL Continental
COATESVILLE--2nd Big Valley-7th Carlisle-1st Westtown-3rd Chesmonts
CONESTOGA--2nd PTXC7 Blue-13th Adidas Champs-11th Paul Short Brown-3rd Manhattan C-2nd Centrals
DOWNINGTOWN EAST--1st Northhampton-1st Centaur-4th Briarwood Champs-3rd Westtown-4th Chesmonts
DOWNINGTOWN WEST--7th Cherokee Merged-8th Carlisle-5th Chesmonts
GREAT VALLEY--3rd Abington-1st Briarwood D1-2nd Salesianum-2nd Chesmonts
NORTH PENN--2nd Abingtn-6th Briarwood Champs-2nd 6Flags Merged-1st Salesianum-3rd Manhattan A-1st SOL Continental
OWEN J ROBERTS--2nd Centaur-9th Foundation-6th Paul Short Brown-2nd Pioneer
PENNSBURY--1st Cherokee Merged-1st George School-1st Paul Short Brown-2nd Eastern States
PERKIOMEN VALLEY--2nd PTXC7 Gold-1st Foundation-3rd Paul Short Brown-1st Pioneer
STRATH HAVEN--1st Abington-7th Briarwood Champs-8th Bull Run Elite-16th Paul Short Brown-2nd Delcos-1st Centrals
UNIONVILLE--2nd Cherokee Merged-1st Oberad-1st Chesmonts
INDIVIDUALS
In 2014, 43rd place qualified for STATES--that meant there were 18 girls on the TOP 5 teams who would have individually made STATES. This year that number appears to be likely 19--PENNSBURY(7)-UNIONVILLE(4)-NORTH PENN(3)-PERKIOMEN VALLEY(3)- and OWEN J ROBERTS(2).
Just to clear up the confusion for the 25 individual qualifiers, I am going to say that these 5 teams' individuals will be removed(names of their likely(TOP 40) qualifiers included)--PENNSBURY-Sargent(12)(3rd 2014)-Molloy(12)(8th 2014)-Sauer(12)(70th 2014)-Twomey(12)(9th 2014)-Webb(11)-Estey(10)(35th 2014)-Balmer(12)(25th 2014)--UNIONVILLE-Juul(11)(22nd 2014)-Breeding(12)(6th 2014)-Rickenbach(12)-McGovern(9)--NORTH PENN-Gardizy(10)(120th 2014)-Clowser((12)(36th 2014)-Dyer(10)(78th 2014)-- PERK VALLEY-Glodek(11)(13th 2014)-Rotay(9)-Scheinbecker(10)--OWEN J ROBERTS-Brunton(11)-Glasier(10)(43rd 2014)--- That's 19 girls 19+ 25 = 44th place likely to make STATES???
Other individuals (not including top 5 teams' individuals) who are almost assuredly going to make it to STATES are (in alphabetical order)
Black(WISS)(12)(14th 2014)
Bonaventure(SOUD)(10)
Bracken(BSHAN)(12)(49th 2014)
Dawson(CBE)(11)(50th 2014)
Devlin(DW)(11)(5th 2014)
Green(RID)(10)(80th 2014)
Hutton(CTSV)(10)(4th 2014)
Mansaray(PWOOD)(12)(71st 2014)
Marchini(SFORD)(11)(41st 2014)
Mesyngier(SH)(12)(161st 2014)
Morris(CBE)(11)(40th 2014)
Nasman(CON)(12)(11th 2014)
Planck(DW)(11)(10th 2014)
Shultz(CON)(10)(107th 2014)
Turner(PWOOD)(11)
Villalba(CBW)(12)(7th 2014)
Wiggins(SFORD)(12)
Willig(GV)(12)(37th 2014)
That's 18-----7 to go!!?
Others who have a very good chance to make STATES???(not on a TOP 5 team).
In alphabetical order they are:
Brill(PENNR)(11)(54th 2014)
Greene(HAR)(11)(23rd 2014)
Joseph(UDAR)(11)(20th 2014)
Okami(SH)(12)(95th 2014)
Porreca(GV)(9)
Richart(CHELT)(12)(53rd 2014)
L.VanBlunk(DE)(11)(46th 2014)
M.VanBlunk(DE)(11)(163rd 2014)
Others with a shot??? (not on a TOP 5 team)
Barkdoll(SH)(10)
Bell(SOUD)(12)
Cardi(SH)(11)(29th 2014)
Dougherty(WCE)(11)
Dunn(PC)(12)(91st 2014)
Galster(SFORD)(10)
Harlan(BSHAN)(9)
Hassman(LMER)(9)
Huff(KEN)(10)
Jacobs(AGR)(11)
Keyte(CBW)(12)
Klang(WCR)(11)
Knudsen(HH)(11)
Merrill(WCH)(10)(176th 2014)
Miller(CTSV)(9)
Ocamb(QU)(12)
Quinn(HH)(12)(97th 2014)
Reilly(KEN)(11)
Roth(CBW)(12)(59th 2014)
Serwatka(PHX)(11)
Smith(SFORD)(9)
Smith(UDUB)(11)(62nd 2014)
Weaver(NESH)(10)(73rd 2014)
Wiley(CBE)(10)
Who will be the Individual Champ? (Last year I predicted correctly all of the TOP 5 and got the winner (SHEVA) right as well)! 3rd thru 6th will be Molloy(PENNS)(12), Juul(UNV)(11), Hutton(CTSV)(10), and Villalba(CBW)(12). As for FIRST, Sargent(PENNS)(12) and Devlin(DW)(11) will be a show worth watching!! Devlin(DW)(11) is unbeaten this year winning Carlisle and Chesmonts. Sargent(PENNS)(12) was 1st at George School, 2nd at Paul Short(behind a DEL girl), 8th at Manhattan's 4K(only behind NY girls), and ran 17:33 at SOL. Devlin(DW)(11) has beaten Olivere(PAD)(10) by 6 seconds at Carlisle and Sargent(PENNS)(12) lost to her by 2 seconds on the Lehigh course. It will be close!!! I am a fan of SENIORS and I am predicting SENIOR Olivia Sargent will win DISTRICT 1 and cap off a marvelous career!!!
By the way--these girls are STREAKING!!!!!!!
Qualified for STATES as individuals as freshmen (now sophomores)
Hutton(CTSV)(4th 2014)--Bamford(SFORD)(27th 2014)--Estey(PENNS)(35th 2014)--Glasier(OJR)(43rd 2014)
Qualified for STATES as individuals at DISTRICTS as freshmen and sophomores (now juniors)
Devlin(DW)(5th 2014 4th 2013)--H.Morris(CBE)(40th 2014 38th 2013)
And YES ONLY these girls have made it all 3 years!! (now SENIORS)QUITE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT!!!!!
Sargent(PENNS)( 3rd 2014 3rd 2013 7th 2012)--Willig(GV)(37th 2014 12th 2013 9th 2012)---Molloy(PENNS)(8th 2014 5th 2013 18th 2012)--
Villalba(CBW)(7th 2014 11th 2013 20th 2012)--Clowser(NP)(36th 2014 27th 2013 25th 2012)--Black(WISS)(14th 2014 18th 2013 26th 2012)
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!
Class AA
Villa Joseph Marie have been the class of the division since the opening day of the season. They have been led by a young crop of freshmen and sophomore runners who have made a successful adjustment into high school running. Katie Irelan has been leading from the front since day one and will be favored to win the individual gold while leading her team to a team championship.
Class A
Emma Seifried of Country Day School of the Sacred Heart will be a heavy favorite to win back to back district titles on Friday. She recently won her 2nd straight AACA Championship title on October 20. Behind her, Christopher Dock should cruise to the district team title with Maddison Landis leading the charge.
