AA GIRLS 1st place team and next 5 non-1st-place team finishers qualify for STATES
TEAM
ST BASILS is the 2 time defending AA District 1 Champ winning in 2007 and 2006. This year they are a big favorite with only VILLA JOSEPH MARIE having any shot at all! ST BASIL easily defeated them at the AACA meet and were ahead of them at Lehigh in the PAUL SHORT “brown” race. ST BASIL finished 20th at Paul Short, 3rd at the NE INV, and 6th at SPIKED SHOE. VILLA JOESEPH MARIE was 6th at WILLIAM TENN., 28th PAUL SHORT, 2nd CRINV(AA), and 2nd BRIARWOOD(D2).
INDIVIDUALS
ST BASIL’s Gilmore(12)(2nd 2007) and Barrett(11)(6th 2007) will certainly be up there. Assuming their team wins, there are still 5 STATE spots available. Forshee(12)(PHILMONT CHRISTIAN)(4th 2007) should win the race by a good margin. She was the champ at the BICENTENNIAL meet,1st at PAUL SHORT “white”, 3rd CRINV, and 9th at HERSHEY “blue”. The 4 other likely qualifiers are Coradino(12)(12th 2007)(DELCO CHRISTIAN)- 2nd BICENTENNIAL and 16th DELCO CHAMPS--Powis(10)(15th 2007)(CHRISTOPHER DOCK)-3rd BICENTENNIAL, 4th WILLIAM TENN., and 17th CRINV--and the 2 VILLA JOSEPH MARIE runners MAHONEY(9) 2nd AACA (behind only Barrett) and Rother(12) could make it as well.
AAA GIRLS 5 teams plus the next 25 non-team finishers qualify for STATES
TEAM
HISTORY---UNIONVILLE(2nd 2007) had qualified 5 years in a row--COUNCIL ROCK NORTH(1st 2007) has qualified 7 of the last 9 years--NORTH PENN(5th 2007) has qualified 6 of the last 9 years--WEST CHESTER HENDERSON(9th 2007) had made it 4 of the last 5 years--STRATH HAVEN(4th 2007) qualified 3 of last 4 years--DOWNINGTOWN EAST(3rd 2007) and PERK VALLEY(6th 2007) are the other 2 qualifiers from last year.
Losing a TEAM STATE qualifier has many District 1 coaches VERY upset. The 6th place team deserves to question PIAA’s decision.(by the way there will be 25 AA teams and only 24 AAA teams at STATES???) In 2007 236 points was 5th. I predict this year you will only need 280 to make it(280/5=average 56th place)
2008 PREDICTIONS!!??
NORTH PENN has only lost to one team the entire season(Haddonfield NJ). They wer e 1st at SOL, 1st “D” MANHATTAN, 1st SALESIANUM, 1st CONRAD WEISER, 2nd BRIARWOOD CHAMP., and 1st at the CBE INV. They will be an EASY winner at District 1!!!
#2 should be COUNCIL ROCK NORTH. They were 2nd to NORTH PENN at SOL, 3rd at CARLISLE REEBOK, 2nd at HERSHEY “gold” and 2nd at VIKING.
3rd and 4th will likely go to DOWNINGTOWN EAST and PERK VALLEY. DOWNINGTOWN EAST got off to a fast start, hit a few bumps, and seems to have gotten it together just in time. They were 1st at CHES-MONTS, 2nd WILLIAM TENN., 3rd STEEL CITY, 2nd CHRIS FRETZ, 1st at CENTAUR, and 2nd at ABINGTON. PERK VALLEY has a strong pack with no real front-runner. They were 1st PIONEER ATHLETIC, 4th PAUL SHORT “brown”, 1st CHRIS FRETZ, and 4th CENTAUR.
ONLY ONE SPOT LEFT?????
NOT REALLY!!! Of the 12 other teams that have a legitimate chance, a number of them could finish ahead of DOWNINGTOWN EAST and PERK VALLEY if they have the races they are capable of!!
Here is the list in alphabetical order(sorry for the cop out) with relevant team finishes and information.
1)BOYERTOWN(37 2007)- 2nd PIONEER ATHL., 4th STEEL CITY, 3rd HERSHEY “gold”
2)CBSOUTH(14 2007)-6th SOL, 2nd STEEL CITY, 1si CRINV, 2nd BULLDOG “large”
3)CBWEST(20 2007)-4th SOL, 1st BULLDOG “large”, 3rd GETTYSBURG, 3rd VIKING
4)CONESTOGA(42 2007)--peaking at the right time! 2nd CENTRALS, 5th BRIARWOOD D1
5)HATBORO HORSHAM(13 2007)--Started fast-a little down of late-?Irwin’s health?-9th SOL,4th WILLIAM TENN., 2nd SALESIANUM, 2nd CRINV, 2nd CENTAUR, 1st ABINGTON, 4th VIKING
6)HAVERFORD(16 2007)--1st CENTRALS, 2nd DELCOS, 9th PAUL SHORT “brown”, 1st BRIARWOOD D1, 6th ABINGTON
7)LOWER MERION(27 2007)--4th CENTRALS, 1st BULL RUN “medium”, 22nd PAUL SHORT “brown”, 5th VIKING
8)PENNRIDGE(7 2007)--Just missed 2007! Added incentive!!5th SOL, 2nd BRIARWOOD D1
9)PENNSBURY(17 2007)--7th SOL,3rd WILLIAM TENN., 4th CRINV, 7th HERSHEY “gold”, 3rd CENTAUR, 8th VIKING
10)STRATH HAVEN(4 2007)--Lost Meyer(27 STATES 2007)after DELCOS! 3rd CENTRALS, 1st DELCOS, 5th PAUL SHORT “brown”, 4th BRIARWOOD CHAMP
11)WEST CHESTER HENDERSON(9 2007)--As always running well when it counts! 2nd CHES-MONTS, 5th “A” MANHATTAN, 6th BRIARWOOD CHAMP
12)WILLIAM TENNENT(12 2007)--3rd SOL(strong showing), 1st WILLIAM TENN(WOW!), 17 PAUL SHORT “brown”
INDIVIDUALS
0A
Assuming NORTH PENN and COUNCIL ROCK NORTH qualify as teams, they will most likely have 7 runners near the front. Since 3 other teams make it, let’s assume each has 2 up there and therfore that is 6 more runners out from the indiv. list. 7 + 6=13----13 +25=38----That’s right!! You will probably have to be 38th or better to make it as an individual. 2007 19:20 was 38th. I predict this year it will be 19:10.
Who will be the Individual Champ?
7 girls appear to have a chance to win it!(* means they may be on a team that qualifies)
They are Cohick*(11)(NP), Selheimer*(10)(NP)(39 2007), Herman*(9)(PENNSBURY), Rheiner*(10)(CRN)(14 2007), Simpson*(11)(BOYERTOWN)(10 2007), GORMAN(12)(PLYMOUTH WHITEMARSH)(15 2007), and Freedman(11)(RADNOR)(5 2007)
I always root for the seniors, but I make Rheiner*(CRN), Simpson*(BOY), and Cohick*(NP) the 3 favorites.
Who will more than likely be the next highest(lowest) finishers??
In random order they are----
Brown*(9)(NP)
Bond*(12)(NP)(24 2007)
Casey*(11)(DE)
Augustyn*(9)(WCH)
Manning-Smith*(10)(WCH)
Piccoli*(12)(LM)
Rutkowski*(10)(SH)(22 2007
Meehan*(9)(HAV)
Malloy(11)(UPPER PERK)
Crawley(12)(COATESVILLE)
Fricke*(CRN)(12 2007)
Dietzler(12)UPPER DARBY)(28 2007)
Klebe*(11)(CON)
Areias*(11)(WMTENN)(30 2007)
Bonsall(*PERKV)
Hans(11)(DOWNINGTOWN WEST)
Goeke(12)(GARNET VALLEY)
Holl(9)(UPPER DUBLIN)
Gerlach*(9)(PENNRIDGE)
That is 19 more!!!plus the TOP 7=26
Others who have a legitimate chance to make STATES???
In random order they are
Ulrich*(9)(HH)
Renn*(9)(HH)
Irwin*(11)(HH)(17 2007)
Ludwick*(12)(PENNSBURY)(29 2007)
Drew(11)(NESHAMINY)
Histand(NESH)(25 2007)
Haslett*(10)(WMTENN)(46 2007)
Conklin*(11)(WMTENN)
Bauman*(PERK VAL)
Sidiorak*(11)(PERKVAL)
Kratz(SOUDERTON)(13 2007)
Harvey(9)(OXFORD)
Chappell*(11)(CBS)(27 2007)
Gervais*(CBW)
Gundry*(CBW)
Ben-Joseph*(CBW)
Powell(10)(POTTSGROVE)
Kruman*(11)(CRN)(26 2007)
Guidera(CBE)
Montgomery*(12)(HAV)
Bascelli(11)(RIDLEY)
Seglem*(11)(SH)
Mehlman*(12)(PENNR)
That’s 23 more!! 26+23=49 REMEMBER probably only 38 will make it to STATES!!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!