PREVIEW
GIRLS DISTRICT ONE AA and AAA 2009 PREVIEW
by Coach Coren(Strath Haven) jumpdr1@aol.com
by Coach Coren(Strath Haven) jumpdr1@aol.com
AA GIRLS 1st place team and next 5 non-1st-place team finishers qualify for STATES
TEAM
ST BASILS is the 3 time defending AA District 1 Champ. This year they are a big favorite with only CHRISTOPHER DOCK having any shot at all! ST BASIL was ahead of them at Lehigh in the 2 different PAUL SHORT races by an average of 30 seconds per girl.
INDIVIDUALS
ST BASIL’s Barrett(11)(7th 2008)(7th 2007) will battle Powis(10)(3rd 2008)(15th 2007)(CHRISTOPHER DOCK) and Mahony(9th 2008)(VILLA JOE MARIE) for the AA title. Assuming ST BASIL wins the Team title , there are still 5 STATE spots available. Powis and Mahony will get two. The other 3 will likely go to one of the following young ladies--Lambright(CD), Harmon(LMORE), Kozar(NHS),Moss(NHS),Fullmer(10th 2008)(ST PIUS X), Finn(SMONTCO), or Shockley(VJM).
AAA GIRLS 5 teams plus the next 25 non-team finishers qualify for STATES
TEAM
HISTORY---UNIONVILLE had qualified 5 years in a row before missing in 2008--COUNCIL ROCK NORTH had qualified 8 of the last 10 years, but not this year!!--NORTH PENN(1st 2008) has qualified 7 of the last 10 years--WEST CHESTER HENDERSON has made it 4 of the last 6 years--STRATH HAVEN qualified 3 of the last 5 years--DOWNINGTOWN EAST (3rd 2007 and 2008)
For the second year in a row District One gets only 5 TEAMS to qualify for STATES. In 2007 236 points was 5th. In 2008 363 points was fifth with teams 6 thru 11 less than 30 points behind! WOW!!!! I predict this year it will revert to normal and take 290 to make it(290/5=average 58th place)
2009 PREDICTIONS!!??
NORTH PENN and PENNSBURY should battle it out for 1st and 2nd. They both appear to be LOCKS to go to STATES! NORTH PENN beat PENNSBURY by 30 total seconds at Manhattan and they look like they are peaking at the right time. PENNSBURY is very very likely to avenge their 6th place finish at Districts in 2008 and 2010 brings another Sargent. They may dominate next year??
3rd and 4th will likely go to the 2 CHESMONT schools-DOWNINGTOWN EAST, and WEST CHESTER HENDERSON. WCH won their league meet by 1 point!! Of the remaining teams that have a chance to garner a trip to STATES these teams(alphabetical order) look like they have a legitimate shot if they trot well on Oct. 30----- CENTRAL BUCKS EAST, CENTRAL BUCKS SOUTH, CENTRAL BUCKS WEST, STRATH HAVEN, and UNIONVILLE.
Here is the list in alphabetical order(sorry for the cop out) with relevant team finishes and information.
CBEAST--2nd CBE Invit-3rd SOL Continental
CBSOUTH--1st Bulldog Large-7th Carlisle Challenge-1st Tennent Inv-4th SOL Continental
CBWEST--2nd Sharpe Invit-3rd PTXC1-1st Carlisle Champions-2nd SOL Continental
DOWNINGTOWN EAST--2nd Centaur-1st Fretz-3rd PIAA Gold-2nd Tennenet Invit-2nd Chesmonts
NORTH PENN-1st CBE Invit-5th Briarwood Champ-1st Salesianum-3rd Manhattan C-1st SOL Continental
PENNSBURY--1st Sharpe Invit-1st PTXC1-2nd PIAA Gold-3rd Paul Short Brown-1st Manhattan F-1st SOL National
STRATH HAVEN--6th Abington Inv-1st Briarwood Large-17th Paul Short Brown-2nd Delcos-1st Centrals
UNIONVILLE--4th PIAA Gold-4th O’Neill Invit-3rd Chesmonts
WEST CHESTER HENDERSON--2nd PTXC1-2nd Briarwood Small-2nd Manhattan E-1st Chesmonts
INDIVIDUALS
Assuming NORTH PENN and PENNSBURY qualify as teams, they will most likely have 6 runners near the front. Since 3 other teams make it, let’s assume each has 1 or 2 up there and therfore that is ?4 more runners out from the indiv. list. 6 + 4=10----10 +25=35----That’s right!! You will probably have to be 35th or better to make it as an individual. 2007 19:20 made it. 2008 19:11 made it. I predict this year it will be 19:09.
Who will be the Individual Champ?
The race for the individual crown will be between Sophomore McGovern**(NP) and freshman Sargent**(PENNSB). McGovern beat Sargent by 18 seconds at SOL and Sargent had run faster than her(9 secs.) at Manhattan. They are the 2 hottest runners and it will take under 17:40 to win it!!
Other individuals who are almost assuredly going to make it to STATES are (in alphabetical order)--(** means their team will almost definitely make it--* means their team may make it)
Areias(12)(WMT)(21 2008)
Augustyn*(10)(WCH)(7 2008)
Chang(9)(PC)
Cohick**(12)(NP)(4 2008)
Drew(12)(NESH)(24 2008)
Freedman(12)(RAD)(14 2008)The only!!!! Senior who has qualified the last 3 years in a row(5 2007)(11 2006) WOW!!!!!
Gerlach(10)(PENNR)(25 2008)
Herman**(10)(PENNSB)(8 2008)
Perry**(11)(PENNSB)(53 2008)
Kinkead*(10)(CBE)(108 2008)
Guidera*(11)(CBE)(22 2008)
Lampe*(11)(BSH)(79 2008)
Malloy(10)(UPERK)(5 2008)
S.Meehan(10)(HAV)(27 2008)
Rheiner(11)(CRN)(3 2008)(14 2007) Streak is alive!
Rutkowski*(11)(SH)(18 2008)(22 2007) Streak is alive!
Simpson(12)(BOY)(1 2008)
That’s 2 + 17=19!!!!
There is room for??16 more??
Others who have a legitimate chance to make STATES???
In random order they are
Brown**(10)(NP)(6 2008)
Radzinski**(9)(PENNSB)
Carcella*(11)(DE)(55 2008)
Callaghan*(9)(DE)
Black*(10)(DE)
Weiler*(10)(DE)(62 2008)
Insetta*(12)(UNV)(43 2008)
Manning-Smith*(11)(WCH)(23 2008)
Camiolo*(12)(CBW)(102 2008)
Seglem*(12)(SH)(70 2008)
Whitelaw*(12)SH
Chappell*(12)(CBS)(16 2008)
Klebe(11)(CON)(10 2008)
O’Neill(12)(CON)
T.Meehan(9)(HAV)
Harbison(10)(GV)(154 2008)
Moyer(9)(GV)
Stickley(11)(BSH)
Sheva(9)(PENNR)
Rhymer(12)(QU)
Harvey(10)(OXF)(46 2008)
Dickinson(12)(WCR)(80 2008)
Powell(11)(POTTSG)(17 2008)
Evans(11)(DW)(67 2008)
McAteer(11)(UMER)
Mazurek(10)(WCE)(200 2008)
Palmer(11)(METH)(150 2008)
Serletti(10)(LMER)
Rutter(12)(RID)(113 2008)
Perri(12)(MTSJ)
Tempone(12)(PERKV)(95 2008)
That’s 31 more!! 19 + 31= 50!!! REMEMBER probably only 35 will likely make it to STATES!!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!
TEAM
ST BASILS is the 3 time defending AA District 1 Champ. This year they are a big favorite with only CHRISTOPHER DOCK having any shot at all! ST BASIL was ahead of them at Lehigh in the 2 different PAUL SHORT races by an average of 30 seconds per girl.
INDIVIDUALS
ST BASIL’s Barrett(11)(7th 2008)(7th 2007) will battle Powis(10)(3rd 2008)(15th 2007)(CHRISTOPHER DOCK) and Mahony(9th 2008)(VILLA JOE MARIE) for the AA title. Assuming ST BASIL wins the Team title , there are still 5 STATE spots available. Powis and Mahony will get two. The other 3 will likely go to one of the following young ladies--Lambright(CD), Harmon(LMORE), Kozar(NHS),Moss(NHS),Fullmer(10th 2008)(ST PIUS X), Finn(SMONTCO), or Shockley(VJM).
AAA GIRLS 5 teams plus the next 25 non-team finishers qualify for STATES
TEAM
HISTORY---UNIONVILLE had qualified 5 years in a row before missing in 2008--COUNCIL ROCK NORTH had qualified 8 of the last 10 years, but not this year!!--NORTH PENN(1st 2008) has qualified 7 of the last 10 years--WEST CHESTER HENDERSON has made it 4 of the last 6 years--STRATH HAVEN qualified 3 of the last 5 years--DOWNINGTOWN EAST (3rd 2007 and 2008)
For the second year in a row District One gets only 5 TEAMS to qualify for STATES. In 2007 236 points was 5th. In 2008 363 points was fifth with teams 6 thru 11 less than 30 points behind! WOW!!!! I predict this year it will revert to normal and take 290 to make it(290/5=average 58th place)
2009 PREDICTIONS!!??
NORTH PENN and PENNSBURY should battle it out for 1st and 2nd. They both appear to be LOCKS to go to STATES! NORTH PENN beat PENNSBURY by 30 total seconds at Manhattan and they look like they are peaking at the right time. PENNSBURY is very very likely to avenge their 6th place finish at Districts in 2008 and 2010 brings another Sargent. They may dominate next year??
3rd and 4th will likely go to the 2 CHESMONT schools-DOWNINGTOWN EAST, and WEST CHESTER HENDERSON. WCH won their league meet by 1 point!! Of the remaining teams that have a chance to garner a trip to STATES these teams(alphabetical order) look like they have a legitimate shot if they trot well on Oct. 30----- CENTRAL BUCKS EAST, CENTRAL BUCKS SOUTH, CENTRAL BUCKS WEST, STRATH HAVEN, and UNIONVILLE.
Here is the list in alphabetical order(sorry for the cop out) with relevant team finishes and information.
CBEAST--2nd CBE Invit-3rd SOL Continental
CBSOUTH--1st Bulldog Large-7th Carlisle Challenge-1st Tennent Inv-4th SOL Continental
CBWEST--2nd Sharpe Invit-3rd PTXC1-1st Carlisle Champions-2nd SOL Continental
DOWNINGTOWN EAST--2nd Centaur-1st Fretz-3rd PIAA Gold-2nd Tennenet Invit-2nd Chesmonts
NORTH PENN-1st CBE Invit-5th Briarwood Champ-1st Salesianum-3rd Manhattan C-1st SOL Continental
PENNSBURY--1st Sharpe Invit-1st PTXC1-2nd PIAA Gold-3rd Paul Short Brown-1st Manhattan F-1st SOL National
STRATH HAVEN--6th Abington Inv-1st Briarwood Large-17th Paul Short Brown-2nd Delcos-1st Centrals
UNIONVILLE--4th PIAA Gold-4th O’Neill Invit-3rd Chesmonts
WEST CHESTER HENDERSON--2nd PTXC1-2nd Briarwood Small-2nd Manhattan E-1st Chesmonts
INDIVIDUALS
Assuming NORTH PENN and PENNSBURY qualify as teams, they will most likely have 6 runners near the front. Since 3 other teams make it, let’s assume each has 1 or 2 up there and therfore that is ?4 more runners out from the indiv. list. 6 + 4=10----10 +25=35----That’s right!! You will probably have to be 35th or better to make it as an individual. 2007 19:20 made it. 2008 19:11 made it. I predict this year it will be 19:09.
Who will be the Individual Champ?
The race for the individual crown will be between Sophomore McGovern**(NP) and freshman Sargent**(PENNSB). McGovern beat Sargent by 18 seconds at SOL and Sargent had run faster than her(9 secs.) at Manhattan. They are the 2 hottest runners and it will take under 17:40 to win it!!
Other individuals who are almost assuredly going to make it to STATES are (in alphabetical order)--(** means their team will almost definitely make it--* means their team may make it)
Areias(12)(WMT)(21 2008)
Augustyn*(10)(WCH)(7 2008)
Chang(9)(PC)
Cohick**(12)(NP)(4 2008)
Drew(12)(NESH)(24 2008)
Freedman(12)(RAD)(14 2008)The only!!!! Senior who has qualified the last 3 years in a row(5 2007)(11 2006) WOW!!!!!
Gerlach(10)(PENNR)(25 2008)
Herman**(10)(PENNSB)(8 2008)
Perry**(11)(PENNSB)(53 2008)
Kinkead*(10)(CBE)(108 2008)
Guidera*(11)(CBE)(22 2008)
Lampe*(11)(BSH)(79 2008)
Malloy(10)(UPERK)(5 2008)
S.Meehan(10)(HAV)(27 2008)
Rheiner(11)(CRN)(3 2008)(14 2007) Streak is alive!
Rutkowski*(11)(SH)(18 2008)(22 2007) Streak is alive!
Simpson(12)(BOY)(1 2008)
That’s 2 + 17=19!!!!
There is room for??16 more??
Others who have a legitimate chance to make STATES???
In random order they are
Brown**(10)(NP)(6 2008)
Radzinski**(9)(PENNSB)
Carcella*(11)(DE)(55 2008)
Callaghan*(9)(DE)
Black*(10)(DE)
Weiler*(10)(DE)(62 2008)
Insetta*(12)(UNV)(43 2008)
Manning-Smith*(11)(WCH)(23 2008)
Camiolo*(12)(CBW)(102 2008)
Seglem*(12)(SH)(70 2008)
Whitelaw*(12)SH
Chappell*(12)(CBS)(16 2008)
Klebe(11)(CON)(10 2008)
O’Neill(12)(CON)
T.Meehan(9)(HAV)
Harbison(10)(GV)(154 2008)
Moyer(9)(GV)
Stickley(11)(BSH)
Sheva(9)(PENNR)
Rhymer(12)(QU)
Harvey(10)(OXF)(46 2008)
Dickinson(12)(WCR)(80 2008)
Powell(11)(POTTSG)(17 2008)
Evans(11)(DW)(67 2008)
McAteer(11)(UMER)
Mazurek(10)(WCE)(200 2008)
Palmer(11)(METH)(150 2008)
Serletti(10)(LMER)
Rutter(12)(RID)(113 2008)
Perri(12)(MTSJ)
Tempone(12)(PERKV)(95 2008)
That’s 31 more!! 19 + 31= 50!!! REMEMBER probably only 35 will likely make it to STATES!!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!