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PIAA State Championships - AAA Girls' Team Preview
Like the individual race, the team battle is very difficult to predict for the AAA girls. The September 23 PIAA Foundation Invitational on the Hershey course gave us a taste of what was to come in November with eight of the state's top-ranked teams all in one race, but the district meets proved that a lot can change in six weeks.
Now we return to Hershey for the first time since that mid-September meet. What can we expect?
Manheim Township won that Foundation Invitational narrowly over Fox Chapel by just four points. Since then, Manheim Township retained the top spot in our Flo50 team rankings, winning big at their league championship and the District 3 Championships. MT has had a much different finishing order in every meet and doesn't have a true front-runner, but rather its strength is in the pack, which was just 18 second (1-5) spread at Big Spring last week. It may need a runner or two to step up into medal placing if it wants another Hershey win on Saturday.
Fox Chapel Area was second to Manheim Township at Foundation. Led by Caelen Miller, FCA has picked up some big wins this season including at Red, White & Blue and Mack Cooper. It has a good mix of medal contenders and depth. But Fox Chapel did fall at the WPIAL Championships to Oakland Catholic.
Oakland Catholic was a surprise winner at WPIALs, coming from behind in the last two miles to beat FCA 43-56. Hannah Schupansky showed she can be in the mix for the individual title this weekend, but Oakland Catholic's next five runners were separated by just 20 seconds. That's a strong pack that will bode well for the state meet.
Photo by Howard Anderson
Then there is Central Bucks West, which put together a memorable performance at the District 1 Championships. The Lady Bucks (fourth at Foundation) scored just 60 points and put its whole top four in the top 11 and a 1-5 gap of 33 seconds. West is young, but it showed it can handle a big stage at districts. Can it replicate that performance at Hershey?
Owen J. Roberts, which took third at Foundation, took second to CB West in District 1, but it has a talented team capable of turning some heads. OJR will also need to have a few runners in the individual medal hunt to make a run at the win.
The defending AAA team champions come from Cardinal O'Hara and they'll be back in Hershey on Saturday. The Lions were sixth at Foundation, but have really seen its fifth runner lower the gap to its No. 4. With low sticks in Elizabeth and Eleanor Mancini, O'Hara will be in the mix for a repeat title if everyone has a good day.
Few programs have been as consistent over the past few years as State College Area. The Little Lions have proven all season that they are ready to contend with the state's best. The runaway District 6 champions, too, have a solid pack. After taking fifth at states in 2015 and fourth at states in 2016, this team will be on the hunt for yet another strong showing in Hershey.
North Allegheny has a pair of top ten contenders in Clara Savchik and Hannah Lindgren. After taking third in the WPIAL, look for the Tigers to be in the mix for a high finish at the state meet.
District 3 runners-up Dallastown will look to make a big impression on the state meet this weekend. Hershey is another solid District 3 team, along with Chambersburg, who all made it out of the competitive central PA district. North Penn has come around in a big way as of late, taking third in District 1 and should be worth watching for. Unionville has a way of always peaking at the right time. After a fourth place D1 finish, what will U-Ville have in store for states? District 11 champions Easton will look to crack the top ten with a strong showing on Saturday.
Photo by Phil Grove
Deeper Analysis
Based on speed ratings, which are compiled by TullyRunners.com, a New York-based website, we can get a deeper look at how the race for the AAA girls' team title might play out.
MileSplit NY and TullyRunners' definition of speed ratings is as follows: "In short, a speed rating is a number attributed to an XC performance, roughly one point per three seconds, adjusted for overall race quality and depth. Using these numbers, we can compare performances on an apples to apples basis -- in terms of XC times and teams. It provides an answer to the hypothetical question, 'What would happen if the best teams in the (state) all raced at once?'"
TullyRunners calculated speed ratings for three district meets from last week---1, 3, and 7. If you calculate speed rating top five averages for the top teams at those districts (Central Bucks West, Fox Chapel Area, Manheim Township, North Allegheny, and Oakland Catholic) here's what we found:
Place | Team (District) | Speed Rating Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Oakland Catholic (7) | 121.0 |
| 2. | Fox Chapel Area (7) | 116.6 |
| 3. | North Allegheny (7) | 115.8 |
| 4. | Central Bucks West (1) | 113.2 |
| 5. | Manheim Township (3) | 107.8 |
So what can we take away from that data? It tells us the WPIAL (District 7) had a very strong year for teams. It also tells us a lot has changed since the PIAA Foundation Invitational, which featured each of these teams. Oakland Catholic, which was off the radar for most of the last month, pulled together its best race of the season by far (and has even entered the national conversation).
Of course, none of this should take away from the fact that the races could play out much differently on Saturday. Hershey has a way of concocting wild outcomes. These speed ratings (which only use district meet times) assume that each runner had their best race on that day (again, not necessarily the case here). It also doesn't include data from other district meets such as District 6 (State College Area) and District 12 (Cardinal O'Hara), which feature teams in the state title conversation.
It's merely some alternative data to see which teams ran the best at their respective district meets.